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INCOSE_GfSE Webinar 8 - Safety assurance under uncertainty
Assuring the safety of modern, highly automated systems presents huge challenges to existing Systems Engineering processes. Such systems are becoming increasingly complex. That is, they exhibit emergent behavior, coupled feedback, non-linearity and semi-permeable system boundaries. These drivers of complexity are further exacerbated by the introduction of AI and machine learning techniques. The result of these developments is an increase in uncertainty in our ability to argue their safety.
Using examples from the field of automated driving, this webinar introduces sources of un-certainty and emergent complexity in the safety assurance process of such systems and discusses why existing safety approaches are reaching their limits of effectiveness. Simon’s talk will illustrate how defining sources of uncertainty and acknowledging the impact of these risk factors at the governance, management and technical levels of the system is key to developing effective safety assurance strategies. State-of-the-art and current research in this area is summarised. Simon’s talk will conclude with the hypothetical question of whether such systems will ever by “safe enough” and how we could go about arguing such a claim.
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